Most private practices don’t struggle because they lack ambition.
They struggle because their new patient goals aren’t anchored to reality.
Every year starts the same way: more new patients, more growth, more momentum. But without a clearly defined new patient baseline — one the team understands, believes in, and can act on — those goals quickly fade into background noise.
In a recent episode of New Patients Now, Flint Geier outlined a simple, proven framework for solving this problem: establish a realistic new patient baseline using real performance data, then build new patient growth on top of it deliberately.
A new patient baseline is the average number of new patients a practice attracts each month based on actual performance — not hopes, projections, or industry averages. It gives practice owners a clear starting point for sustainable dental practice growth.
Why “More New Patients” Isn’t a Growth Strategy
Wanting more new patients is easy.
Building a system that consistently produces them is where most practices struggle.
One of the most common mistakes practice owners make is setting vague new patient goals without clearly defining where they’re starting from. The result is inconsistent execution, frustrated teams, and stalled patient acquisition.
Research from Harvard Business Review (HBR On Leadership: “Setting Goals for Your Team When the Path Isn’t Clear” — transcript) shows that organizations with specific, measurable goals — reinforced frequently — outperform those with aspirational targets, especially during periods of uncertainty.
In healthcare, the Medical Group Management Association (MGMA) reports that practices tracking a small number of core KPIs weekly or daily see stronger operational consistency and better long-term growth than those reviewing dozens of metrics monthly.
In plain terms: “more new patients” isn’t a strategy. A visible, tracked number is.
Real-World Example: The Invisible Goal
A general dental practice in the Midwest believed they needed 30–35 new patients per month to grow.
When they reviewed their data, they discovered their actual 12-month average was 17.
The gap wasn’t a marketing issue — it was an expectation issue.
By resetting their new patient baseline to 18, then establishing a 21-patient baseline target and a 25-patient growth goal, the practice created alignment instead of resistance. Within six months, they consistently hit the baseline — without increasing marketing spend.
The Power of a Weighted New Patient Baseline
Many practices rely on a simple 12-month average to set new patient goals.
The problem? Healthcare is seasonal. Averages without context can mislead decision-making.
Recent industry research on healthcare marketing shows that what you measure directly shapes what improves. A 2025 analysis of healthcare marketing KPIs found that organizations achieve stronger patient acquisition growth when metrics are tied to real outcomes — such as conversion rates, cost per acquired patient, and downstream value — rather than surface-level activity metrics.
That’s why a weighted baseline works better.
Flint’s method blends:
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The last 3 months (recent reality)
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The last 6 months (momentum)
- The last 12 months (seasonality)
The result is a baseline that reflects where the practice actually is, creating a realistic foundation for increasing new patients.
Real-World Example: Recovering Momentum
An orthodontic practice coming off a slow Q4 assumed the downturn was permanent.
After running a weighted baseline analysis, they realized Q4 was an outlier — not a trend. Their 6- and 12-month numbers told a much stronger story.
Instead of cutting marketing, they focused on daily execution: scheduling discipline, referral conversations, and same-month conversions. By mid-Q2, they were back above baseline.
How Small New Patient Gains Create Outsized Financial Impact
One of the most overlooked truths in dental practice growth is that small, consistent gains compound faster than dramatic changes.
Research on strategic execution shows that incremental improvements — small, repeatable enhancements to core drivers — produce more sustainable results than sweeping transformations (The Power of Incremental Enhancements in Company Strategy).
For many dental and specialty practices, the average lifetime value of a new patient ranges from $2,500 to $5,000.
Adding just five new patients per month can translate into:
- $12,500–$25,000 in monthly production
- $150,000–$300,000 in annual revenue
All without increasing ad spend or adding staff.
Real-World Example: Five Patients Changed Everything
A multi-doctor practice in the Southeast increased its new patient average from 22 to 27 per month.
That five-patient improvement allowed the practice to reduce extended hours, lower team burnout, and reinvest in training instead of advertising.
Why Daily New Patient Visibility Changes Team Behavior
Behavior follows attention.
Research from Gallup shows that teams perform better when expectations are clear, visible, and reinforced frequently.
When new patient numbers are discussed daily — even briefly — behavior changes:
- Front desk teams prioritize same-month scheduling
- Clinical teams become more intentional about referrals
- Leaders identify breakdowns earlier
The metric becomes part of the culture, not just a report.
Real-World Example: The Morning Huddle Shift
A solo practice added a simple new patient scoreboard to their morning huddle.
Within weeks, phone conversations improved, follow-up tightened, and referrals increased — without scripts or pressure.
What It Means When New Patient Numbers Stall
One of the most valuable outcomes of tracking a clear baseline is visibility.
When a practice consistently misses its new patient baseline, the issue usually isn’t effort — it’s process.
Stalled growth often reveals:
- Scheduling bottlenecks
- Phone handling gaps
- Referral friction
- Leadership blind spots
And that insight shows exactly where to focus next.
Start With the Fundamentals of New Patient Growth
Setting a new patient baseline isn’t about lowering expectations.
It’s about creating clarity your team can rally around — and building patient acquisition systems that compound month after month.
For practices serious about growth in 2026, this isn’t just goal-setting. It’s leadership.
Frequently Asked Questions About New Patient Growth
What is a good number of new patients per month for private practice?
Every practice is different, but most dental practices average between 15 and 30 new patients per month, depending on location, specialty, capacity, and scheduling efficiency. The most important step is establishing a new patient baseline based on your actual data before setting growth goals.
How do you set realistic new patient goals?
Realistic new patient goals start with understanding your current baseline. From there, practices should account for seasonality, capacity, and execution gaps before setting incremental growth targets.
How can a practice increase new patients without spending more on marketing?
Many practices grow new patient numbers by improving phone handling, same-month scheduling, referral conversations, and daily visibility — often faster than increasing ad spend.
Why do new patient numbers sometimes stall even when marketing is working?
Stalled new patient growth is often caused by internal bottlenecks such as scheduling constraints, missed calls, slow follow-up, or unclear accountability — not a lack of demand.
What metrics should private practices track for new patient growth?
At minimum, practices should track new patients per month, conversion rate from inquiry to appointment, same-month scheduling rate, and referral sources. These metrics create visibility and guide improvement.
Ready to See Where You Stand?
If you want an objective look at how well your practice attracts, converts, and retains new patients — before spending more on marketing — take the 5-Star Challenge.
It’s a complimentary assessment designed to reveal where your new patient experience is helping or hurting growth.